South Africa’s Inflation Rises Again—Food Prices Ease but Transport Costs Push CPI Higher

South Africa’s inflation rate has risen for the second month in a row, climbing to 3.6% in October from 3.4% in September. This marks the highest reading since September 2024, when headline inflation reached 3.8%. Month-on-month, the consumer price index (CPI) ticked up by 0.1%, signalling persistent—though contained—price pressures across the economy.

Transport, recreation, culture, and alcohol and tobacco were the main drivers of the hotter annual print. Meanwhile, inflation slowed in several key categories, most notably food and non-alcoholic beverages, and restaurants and accommodation services.

Food inflation continued its downward slide, easing to 3.9% from 4.5% in September. The slowdown was broad-based, with vegetables, fruit and nuts, hot and cold beverages, sugar and desserts, and meat all registering weaker price growth. However, pressure remained in specific areas such as cereal products, fish and seafood, oils and fats, dairy, and the miscellaneous “other food” group.

Meat inflation, though still high, moderated to 11.4% from 11.7%—its first pullback after reaching an eight-year peak. Certain staples remain sharply elevated, including stewing beef at 30.9%, beef steak at 27.9%, mince at 27.1%, sausages at 17.3%, boerewors at 15.6%, and mutton at 13.4%.
Yet some relief is beginning to filter through: corned meat, whole chicken and bacon are all cheaper than a year ago. A 200g pack of bacon, for example, slipped from R41.25 to R41.11.

Sugar, confectionery and dessert inflation cooled to 3.5%, the lowest since March 2022, driven by softer prices for sugar, jam, peanut butter and chocolate. Hot beverages also posted a weaker annual rate of 8.8%, with rooibos, black tea and cappuccino sachets all showing subdued price growth.

Cereal products saw price growth edge up to 2.0% from 1.6%. Maize meal hit a four-month high at 10.7%, while samp also posted double-digit inflation. But some household staples—white rice, brown bread, hot cereals and instant noodles—were cheaper year-on-year.

Dairy and eggs remained in deflationary territory, improving slightly from -1.6% to -1.5%. Milk, eggs and maize-based drinks all cost less than they did a year earlier, giving consumers some relief in a category usually prone to volatility.

A significant turnaround occurred in transport inflation, which turned positive after 13 months in deflation. The annual rate rose to 1.5%, driven in part by modest fuel price increases. Petrol rose by 0.2% in October while diesel dipped by 0.7%, bringing annual fuel inflation to 3.3%—its first positive reading since August 2024.

Recreation, sport and culture inflation strengthened to 3.4% from 2.9%. The top-selling books across major retailers surged by a staggering 59.4%. Movie ticket prices climbed 15.8% and gym fees increased 10.5%—but sporting event tickets bucked the trend, falling by 12.6% year-on-year.

Provincially, North West recorded the highest inflation rate at 4.3%, while Eastern Cape posted the lowest at 3.1%. Despite usually experiencing higher inflation, the poorest households saw slower price growth than the richest, with the highest-income group recording a 3.9% rate.